In the study of complex networks (systems), the scaling phenomenon of flow fluctuations refers to a certain powerlaw between the mean flux (activity) of the i-th node and its variance σi as σi∝ α. Such scaling laws are found to be prevalent both in natural and man-made network systems, but the understanding of their origins still remains limited. This paper proposes a non-stationary Poisson process model to give an analytical explanation of the non-universal scaling phenomenon: the exponent α varies between 1/2 and 1 depending on the size of sampling time window and the relative strength of the external/internal driven forces of the systems. The crossover behaviour and the relation of fluctuation scaling with pseudo long range dependence are also accounted for by the model. Numerical experiments show that the proposed model can recover the multi-scaling phenomenon.
With rapid urbanization, subway systems are widely acknowledged as one of the best solutions to urban transportation problems. The operators or managers of subway systems should pay more attention to passenger's perceptions of service quality to maintain its competitive position. Taking the traffic state, efficiency,and environmental impact into consideration, the concept of generalized comfort is proposed in this paper. Based on a nested logit model, the selection probability for each factor in a generalized comfort function can be estimated using a nested structure. A certain factor is considered to be more significant in a generalized comfort function than others, when the corresponding probability of this factor is higher in value. Using stated preference and revealed preference data about passenger travel behavior obtained from the Beijing subway, the parameters of generalized comfort function are estimated by maximum likelihood techniques.
Complete and reliable field traffic data is vital for the planning, design, and operation of urban traffic management systems. However, traffic data is often very incomplete in many traffic information systems, which hinders effective use of the data. Methods are needed for imputing missing traffic data to minimize the effect of incomplete data on the utilization. This paper presents an improved Local Least Squares (LLS) approach to impute the incomplete data. The LLS is an improved version of the K Nearest Neighbor (KNN) method. First, the missing traffic data is replaced by a row average of the known values. Then, the vector angle and Euclidean distance are used to select the nearest neighbors. Finally, a regression step is used to get weights of the nearest neighbors and the imputation results. Traffic flow volume collected in Beijing was analyzed to compare this approach with the Bayesian Principle Component Analysis (BPCA) imputation approach. Tests show that this approach provides slightly better performance than BPCA imputation to impute missing traffic data.
As an important technology for predictive maintenance, failure prognosis has attracted more and more attentions in recent years. Real-time reliability prediction is one effective solution to failure prognosis. Considering a dynamic system that is composed of normal, deteriorating and unreliable components, this paper proposes an integrated approach to perform real-time reliability prediction for such a class of systems. For a deteriorating component, the degradation is modeled by a time-varying fault process which is a linear or approximately linear function of time. The behavior of an unreliable component is described by a random variable which has two possible values corresponding to the operating and malfunction conditions of this component. The whole proposed approach contains three algorithms. A modified interacting multiple model particle filter is adopted to estimate the dynamic system's state variables and the unmeasurable time-varying fault. An exponential smoothing algorithm named the Holt's method is used to predict the fault process. In the end, the system's reliability is predicted in real time by use of the Monte Carlo strategy. The proposed approach can effectively predict the impending failure of a dynamic system, which is verified by computer simulations based on a three-vessel water tank system.
XU ZhengGuo1,2, JI YinDong2,3 & ZHOU DongHua1,2? 1 Department of Automation, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Cross-correlating traffic flow data at different intersections in an urban transportation network is important for understanding the collective behavior of constituents in a complex system and for predicting the risk of network-wide congestion. In this work, a Random Matrix Theory (RMT) based method is used to describe the collective behavior from massive traffic data sets. Nonrandom correlations between traffic flow series recorded in the Beijing road network occur both with and without detrending. The effect of the traffic load on the correlation patterns of network-wide traffic flows is analyzed using the RMT analysis of a simulated data set collected from Paramics. The RMT analysis is also used to evaluate the impact of incidents on the network-wide traffic status. Cluster analysis is used to find the largest cluster in the network which indicates the critical congestion caused by the incident. All the results show that RMT analyses are an effective method for investigating systematic interactions in urban transportation systems.
