Based on remote sensing snow water equivalent (SWE) data, the simulated SWE in 20C3M experiments from 14 models attend- hag the third phase of the Coupled Models for Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3) was first evaluated by computing the different percentage, spatial correlation coefficient, and standard deviation of biases during 1979-2000. Then, the diagnosed ten models that performed better simulation in Eurasian SWE were aggregated by arithmetic mean to project the changes of Eurasian SWE in 2002-2060. Results show that SWE will decrease significantly for Eurasia as a whole in the next 50 years. Spatially, significant decreasing trends dominate Eurasia except for significant increase in the northeastern part. Seasonally, decreasing proportion will be greatest in summer indicating that snow cover in wanner seasons is more sensitive to climate warming. However, absolute decreasing trends are not the greatest in winter, but in spring. This is caused by the greater magnitude of negative trends, but smaller positive trends in spring than in winter. The changing characteristics of increasing in eastern Eurasia and decreasing in western Eurasia and over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau favor the viewpoint that there will be more rainfall in North China and less in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer. Additionally, the decreasing rate and extent with significant decreasing trends under SRES A2 are greater than those under SRES B1, indicating that the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) will speed up the decreasing rate of snow cover both temporally and spatially. It is crucial to control the discharge of GHG emissions for mitigating the disappearance of snow cover over Eurasia.
Using observed snow cover dam from Chinese meteorological stations, this study indicated that annual mean snow depth, Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), and snow density during 1957-2009 were 0.49 cm, 0.7 ram, and 0.14 g/cm3 over China as a whole, re- spectively. On average, they were all the smallest in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), and were greater in northwestern China (NW). Spatially, the regions with greater annual mean snow depth and SWE were located in northeastern China including eastern Inner Mongolia (NE), northern Xinjiang municipality, and a small fraction of southwestern QTP. Annual mean snow density was below 0.14 g/cm3 in most of China, and was higher in the QTP, NE, and NW. The trend analyses revealed that both annual mean snow depth and SWE presented increasing trends in NE, NW, the QTP, and China as a whole during 1957-2009. Although the trend in China as a whole was not significant, the amplitude of variation became increasingly greater in the second half of the 20th century. Spatially, the statistically significant (95%-level) positive trends for annual mean snow depth were located in western and northem NE, northwestem Xinjiang municipality, and northeastem QTP. The distribution of positive and negative trends for annu- al mean SWE were similar to that of snow depth in position, but not in range. The range with positive trends of SWE was not as large as that of snow depth, but the range with negative trends was larger.