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国家自然科学基金(40901045)

作品数:4 被引量:96H指数:3
相关作者:马丽娟秦大河罗勇更多>>
相关机构:中国气象局中国气象局国家气候中心中国科学院更多>>
发文基金:国家自然科学基金公益性行业(气象)科研专项更多>>
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Snow water equivalent over Eurasia in the next 50 years projected by aggregated CMIP3 models
2012年
Based on remote sensing snow water equivalent (SWE) data, the simulated SWE in 20C3M experiments from 14 models attend- hag the third phase of the Coupled Models for Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3) was first evaluated by computing the different percentage, spatial correlation coefficient, and standard deviation of biases during 1979-2000. Then, the diagnosed ten models that performed better simulation in Eurasian SWE were aggregated by arithmetic mean to project the changes of Eurasian SWE in 2002-2060. Results show that SWE will decrease significantly for Eurasia as a whole in the next 50 years. Spatially, significant decreasing trends dominate Eurasia except for significant increase in the northeastern part. Seasonally, decreasing proportion will be greatest in summer indicating that snow cover in wanner seasons is more sensitive to climate warming. However, absolute decreasing trends are not the greatest in winter, but in spring. This is caused by the greater magnitude of negative trends, but smaller positive trends in spring than in winter. The changing characteristics of increasing in eastern Eurasia and decreasing in western Eurasia and over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau favor the viewpoint that there will be more rainfall in North China and less in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer. Additionally, the decreasing rate and extent with significant decreasing trends under SRES A2 are greater than those under SRES B1, indicating that the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) will speed up the decreasing rate of snow cover both temporally and spatially. It is crucial to control the discharge of GHG emissions for mitigating the disappearance of snow cover over Eurasia.
LiJuan MaYong LuoDaHe Qin
关键词:PROJECTIONEURASIA
1957—2009年中国台站观测的关键积雪参数时空变化特征被引量:79
2012年
利用1957—2009年中国地面气象台站观测积雪资料分析表明,中国年平均雪深、雪水当量、积雪密度分别为0.49cm、0.7mm、0.14g.cm-3.平均来说,三者在青藏高原地区都是最小的,在西北地区均较大;空间上,中国年平均雪深和雪水当量大值区位于东北和新疆北部,以及青藏高原西南部的小部分区域;中国大部分地区年平均积雪密度在0.14g.cm-3以下,3大稳定积雪区积雪密度略高.1957—2009年,中国及各区域年平均雪深和雪水当量均表现为波动增加趋势,但不显著;空间上雪深的显著正趋势主要位于内蒙古东部、东北北部、新疆西北部和青藏高原东北部;雪水当量与雪深类似,但正趋势范围不如前者广,负趋势范围则较大.
马丽娟秦大河
关键词:积雪积雪深度气候变化
Temporal-spatial characteristics of observed key parameters of snow cover in China during 1957-2009被引量:4
2012年
Using observed snow cover dam from Chinese meteorological stations, this study indicated that annual mean snow depth, Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), and snow density during 1957-2009 were 0.49 cm, 0.7 ram, and 0.14 g/cm3 over China as a whole, re- spectively. On average, they were all the smallest in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), and were greater in northwestern China (NW). Spatially, the regions with greater annual mean snow depth and SWE were located in northeastern China including eastern Inner Mongolia (NE), northern Xinjiang municipality, and a small fraction of southwestern QTP. Annual mean snow density was below 0.14 g/cm3 in most of China, and was higher in the QTP, NE, and NW. The trend analyses revealed that both annual mean snow depth and SWE presented increasing trends in NE, NW, the QTP, and China as a whole during 1957-2009. Although the trend in China as a whole was not significant, the amplitude of variation became increasingly greater in the second half of the 20th century. Spatially, the statistically significant (95%-level) positive trends for annual mean snow depth were located in western and northem NE, northwestem Xinjiang municipality, and northeastem QTP. The distribution of positive and negative trends for annu- al mean SWE were similar to that of snow depth in position, but not in range. The range with positive trends of SWE was not as large as that of snow depth, but the range with negative trends was larger.
LiJuan MaDaHe Qin
CMIP3模式对未来50a欧亚大陆雪水当量的预估被引量:14
2011年
为研究预估未来50 a欧亚大陆雪水当量,基于遥感数据,用误差百分率、空间相关和误差标准差等统计方法,评估了14个CMIP3模式在20C3M的雪水当量产品,诊断各模式对欧亚大陆雪水当量的模拟能力,在此基础上对模拟效果较好的10个模式产品进行多模式集合,分析了A2和B1情景下2002-2060年欧亚大陆雪水当量的变化.结果表明:欧亚大陆整体的雪水当量在未来50 a呈现一致的减少趋势;空间上,除了欧亚大陆东北部存在显著正趋势外,其余地区均为显著负趋势.季节上,雪水当量在夏季减少的比率最大,但量值上减少最大的却不是在积雪最多的冬季,而是在春季,这是因为春季雪水当量值的减少趋势普遍比冬季大,但增加却普遍比冬季小.未来50 a欧亚大陆冬、春季雪水当量呈现东增西减,且青藏高原明显减少的特征,这将有利于我国东部夏季雨带的北抬.雪水当量在A2情景下的减小范围和速率都要大于B1情景,表明较高的温室气体排放将从时间和空间上加快雪水当量的减少,不利于积雪的维持,控制温室气体排放对于未来欧亚大陆积雪的生存至关重要.
马丽娟罗勇秦大河
关键词:欧亚大陆气候变化
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