Climate change affected the agricultural expansion and the formation of farming-grazing transitional patterns during historical periods.This study analyzed the possible range of the boundary shift of the potential suitable agriculture area in the farming-grazing transitional zone in the northeastern China during the 20th century.Based on modern weather data,1 km-resolution land cover data,historical climatic time series,and estimation by using similar historical climatic scenes,the following was concluded:1)The climate conditions of suitable agriculture areas in the farming-grazing transitional zone in the northeastern China between 1971 and 2000 required an average annual temperature above 1℃or≥0℃accumulated temperature above 2500℃–2700℃,and annual precipitation above 350 mm.2)The northern boundary of the potential suitable agriculture area during the relatively warmer period of 1890–1910was approximately located at the position of the 1961–2000 area.The northern boundary shifted back to the south by 75 km on average during the colder period of the earlier 20th century,whereas during the modern warm period of the 1990s,the area shifted north by 100km on average.3)The western and eastern boundaries of the suitable agriculture area during the heaviest drought periods between1920s and 1930s had shifted northeast by 250 km and 125 km,respectively,contrasting to the boundaries of 1951–2008.For the wettest period,that is,the 1890s to the 1910s,the shift of western and eastern boundaries was to the southwest by 125 km and 200 km,respectively,compared with that in the 1951–2008 period.This study serves as a reference for identifying a climatically sensitive area and planning future land use and agricultural production in the study area.
Historical cropland datasets are fundamental for quantifying the effects of human land use activities on climatic change and the carbon cycle. Two representative global land-use datasets, the Global Land Use Database (termed SAGE dataset) and the Historical Database of the Global Environment (termed HYDE dataset) have been established and used widely. Despite improvement of data quality and methodologies for extracting historical land use information, certain dataset limitations exist that need to be quantified and communicated to users so that they can make informed decisions on whether and how these land-use products should be used. The Cropland data of Northeast China (CNEC) is based on calibrated historical data and a multi-sourced data conversion model, and reconstructs cropland cover change in Northeast China over the last 300 years. Us- ing the CNEC as a reference, we evaluated the accuracy of cropland cover for SAGE and HYDE in Northeast China at spatial scales ranging from the entire Northeast China to provinces and even individual raster grid cells. Neither SAGE nor HYDE reflects real historical land reclamation. Cropland areas in SAGE are overestimated by 20.98 times in 1700 to 1.6 times in 1990. Although HYDE is better, there are significant disagreements in cropland area and distribution between HYDE and CNEC, especially in the 18th and 19th centuries. The proportion of total grid cells whose relative error was greater than 100% was 63.55% in 1700 and 53.27% in 1780. Global cropland dataset errors over Northeast China originate mainly from both the reverse calculation method for historical cropland data based on modern spatial patterns, and modern land-use outputs from satellite data.
