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国家自然科学基金(41105054)

作品数:5 被引量:93H指数:4
相关作者:吴统文辛晓歌张洁郭渠程炳岩更多>>
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发文基金:国家自然科学基金国家重点基础研究发展计划公益性行业(气象)科研专项更多>>
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影响耦合模式对东亚气候年代际变化模拟的物理过程研究
2016年
东亚是全球最显著的季风气候区,伴随着全球海气系统在20世纪70年代中后期发生的年代际变化,东亚气候也出现了显著的年代际变化特征。这样的年代际变化伴随着洪涝、干旱等气候灾害事件在我国频繁发生,造成的经济损失日趋增加。气候系统模式是揭示气候异常机理的有效工具,但当前气候系统模式在东亚气候年代际变率的模拟方面,存在一定缺陷。这势必影响到耦合模式在东亚地区气候变化方面的模拟和预估应用。
关键词:东亚气候物理过程气候系统模式年代际变化特征
Evaluation of Cloud Vertical Structure Simulated by Recent BCC_AGCM Versions through Comparison With CALIPSO-GOCCP Data被引量:5
2014年
The abilities of BCC AGCM2.1 and BCC AGCM2.2 to simulate the annual-mean cloud vertical structure(CVS) were evaluated through comparison with GCM-Oriented CALIPSO Cloud Product(CALIPSO-GOCCP) data. BCC AGCM2.2has a dynamical core and physical processes that are consistent with BCC AGCM2.1, but has a higher horizontal resolution.Results showed that both BCC AGCM versions underestimated the global-mean total cloud cover(TCC), middle cloud cover(MCC) and low cloud cover(LCC), and that BCC AGCM2.2 underestimated the global-mean high cloud cover(HCC).The global-mean cloud cover shows a systematic decrease from BCC AGCM2.1 to BCC AGCM2.2, especially for HCC.Geographically, HCC is significantly overestimated in the tropics, particularly by BCC AGCM2.1, while LCC is generally overestimated over extra-tropical lands, but significantly underestimated over most of the oceans, especially for subtropical marine stratocumulus clouds.The leading EOF modes of CVS were extracted. The BCC AGCMs perform well in reproducing EOF1, but with a larger variance explained. The two models also capture the basic features of EOF3, except an obvious deficiency in eigenvector peaks. EOF2 has the largest simulation biases in both position and strength of eigenvector peaks. Furthermore, we investigated the effects of CVS on relative shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing(RSCRF and RLCRF). Both BCC AGCM versions successfully reproduce the sign of regression coefficients, except for RLCRF in PC1. However, the RSCRF relative contributions from PC1 and PC2 are overestimated, while the relative contribution from PC3 is underestimated in both BCC AGCM versions. The RLCRF relative contribution is underestimated for PC2 and overestimated for PC3.
WANG FangXIN XiaogeWANG ZaizhiCHENG YanjieZHANG JieYANG Song
关键词:热带海洋水平分辨率云辐射强迫
How Well does BCC_CSM1.1 Reproduce the 20th Century Climate Change over China?被引量:30
2013年
The historical simulation of phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) experiments performed by the Beijing Climate Center climate system model(BCC_CSM1.1) is evaluated regarding the time evolutions of the global and China mean surface air temperature(SAT) and surface climate change over China in recent decades.BCC_CSM1.1 has better capability at reproducing the time evolutions of the global and China mean SAT than BCC_CSM1.0.By the year 2005,the BCC_CSM1.1 model simulates a warming amplitude of approximately 1℃ in China over the 1961-1990 mean,which is consistent with observation.The distributions of the warming trend over China in the four seasons during 1958-2004 are basically reproduced by BCC_CSM1.1,with the warmest occurring in winter.Although the cooling signal of Southwest China in spring is partly reproduced by BCC_CSM1.1,the cooling trend over central eastern China in summer is omitted by the model.For the precipitation change,BCC_CSM1.1 has good performance in spring,with drought in Southeast China.After removing the linear trend,the interannual correlation map between the model and the observation shows that the model has better capability at reproducing the summer SAT over China and spring precipitation over Southeast China.
XIN Xiao-GeWU Tong-WenLI Jiang-LongWANG Zai-ZhiLI Wei-PingWU Fang-Hua
关键词:气候系统模式变暖趋势中国东南部
BCC气候系统模式开展的CMIP5试验介绍被引量:62
2012年
气候系统模式是研究气候变化机理和预测未来气候变化不可替代的工具。世界气候研究计划(WCRP)组织的耦合模式比较计划(CMIP),为国际耦合模式的评估和后续发展提供了重要的平台。参与该计划的试验数据资料被广泛应用于气候变化相关机理以及未来气候变化特征预估等方面的研究,其研究结果是政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)评估报告的重要内容之一。
辛晓歌吴统文张洁
关键词:气候系统模式BCC未来气候变化世界气候研究计划气候变化特征
BCC_CSM1.1气候模式年代际试验对中国气候的回报能力评估被引量:7
2016年
对比国家气候中心耦合模式BCC_CSM1.1提交CMIP5的历史(Historical)试验和年代际(Decadal)回报试验对中国气候及其年代际变化的模拟。结果表明,Decadal试验回报的中国降水气候分布更接近观测,回报的中国东部气温和降水的年代际距平误差比Historical试验减小明显。对于发生在20世纪70年代末的中国东部降水年代际变化,Decadal试验能回报出长江中下游降水增多的特征,但Historical试验模拟的降水变化与观测相反。由于Decadal试验和Historical试验的区别之一是后者利用观测海温资料进行了初始化,为了探讨观测海温信息的重要性,进一步将Decadal试验与恢复(Nudging)试验(即模式积分过程中,模拟海温始终向观测海温恢复)的模拟结果进行对比。发现Nudging试验能够较好地模拟出"南涝北旱"型降水变化,也能够模拟出相应的东亚急流增强且偏南的特征。这表明气候模式对海温的回报能力是影响其对东亚气候年代际异常模拟的一个重要因素。
魏麟骁辛晓歌程炳岩吴统文郭渠李永华
关键词:年代际降水回报
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