评估了地球系统模式FIO-ESM(First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model)基于CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)的历史实验对北极海冰的模拟能力,分析了该模式基于CMIP5未来情景实验在不同典型浓度路径(RCPs,Representative Concentration Pathways)下对北极海冰的预估情况。通过与卫星观测的海冰覆盖范围资料相比,该模式能够很好地模拟出多年平均海冰覆盖范围的季节变化特征,模拟的气候态月平均海冰覆盖范围均在卫星观测值±15%范围以内。FIO-ESM能够较好地模拟1979-2005年期间北极海冰的衰减趋势,模拟衰减速度为每年减少2.24×104 km2,但仍小于观测衰减速度(每年减少4.72×104 km2)。特别值得注意的是:不同于其他模式所预估的海冰一直衰减,FIO-ESM对21世纪北极海冰预估在不同情景下呈现不同的变化趋势,在RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,北极海冰总体呈增加趋势,在RCP6情景下,北极海冰基本维持不变,而在RCP8.5情景下,北极海冰呈现继续衰减趋势。
In-situ measurements in Xiangshan Bay, the East China Sea, show that the duration of the rising tide is shorter than that of the falling tide around the bay mouth, while it becomes much longer in the inner bay. A finite volume coastal ocean model(FVCOM) with an unstructured mesh was applied to simulate the asymmetric tidal field of Xiangshan Bay. The model reproduced the observed tidal elevations and currents successfully. Several numerical experiments were conducted to clarify the roles of primary mechanisms underlying the asymmetric tidal field. According to the model results, the time-varying channel depth and nonlinear advection prefer shorter duration of the rising tide in Xiangshan Bay, while the time-varying bay width favors longer duration of the rising tide. The overtides generated by these two opposite types of nonlinear mechanisms are out of phase, resulting in smaller M4 amplitude than the sumfold of each individual contribution. Although the bottom friction as a nonlinear mechanism contributes little to the generation of overtide M4, it is regarded as a mechanism that could cause a shorter duration of the rising tide, for it can slow down the M2 phase speed much more than it slows down the M4 phase speed. The time-varying depth, nonlinear advection and bottom friction are dominating factors around the bay mouth, while the time-varying width dominates in the inner bay, causing the tidal elevation asymmetry to be inverted along the bay.
