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国家自然科学基金(40875022)

作品数:8 被引量:91H指数:4
相关作者:王东海刘英夏茹娣柳崇健刘寿东更多>>
相关机构:中国气象科学研究院南京信息工程大学更多>>
发文基金:国家自然科学基金国家重点基础研究发展计划中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项更多>>
相关领域:天文地球建筑科学自动化与计算机技术更多>>

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A Case Study of the November 2012 Mixed Rain-Snow Storm over North China被引量:2
2013年
A mixed rain-snow storm associated with a strong burst of cold air and development of an extratropical cyclone occurred over North China from 3 to 5 November 2012.This early snowfall event was characterized by a dramatic drop in temperature,strong winds,high precipitation intensity,broad spatial extent,and coexistence of multi-phase precipitating hydrometeors.This study investigates the multi-scale interactions between the large-scale circulation background and the synoptic-scale weather systems associated with the storm.The results are as follows.(1) The Arctic Oscillation (AO) had been in its negative phase long before the event,leading to southward advection of cold air into North China in advance of the storm.(2)The large-scale atmospheric circulation experienced a decreased number of long waves upstream of North China prior to the storm,resulting in reduced wave velocity and an almost stagnant low pressure system (extratropical cyclone) over North China.(3) An Ω-shaped blocking high over East Asia and the western Pacific obstructed the eastward movement of an upstream trough,allowing the corresponding surface cyclone to stabilize and persist over Beijing and its neighboring areas.This blocking high was a major factor in making this event a historically most severe precipitation event in autumn in Beijing for the past 60 years.(4) Baroclinic instability at lower levels gave rise to rapid development of the cyclone under the classical "second type" development mechanism for extratropical cyclones.(5) Moisture originated from the Yellow Sea entered the slowly-moving cyclone in a steady stream,creating fairly favorable water vapor supply for the heavy rainfall-snowfall,especially during the later stage of the cyclone development.(6) Moisture transport and frontal lifting triggered low-level instability and updrafts.Intensification of the front enhanced the vertical wind shear,causing conditional symmetric instability (CSI) to expand upward within the unstable lower tropos
王东海端义宏刘英梁钊明柳崇健赵艳风张雨微尹金芳王洪
关键词:AUTUMN
GFS对我国南方两次持续性降水过程的预报技巧评估被引量:5
2015年
采用美国全球预报系统(Global Forecasting System,GFS)资料,利用谐波滤波提取空间长波、超长波分量,检验评估了GFS对2012年7月11-31日东亚地区大气环流场和降水的可预报能力。结果表明:GFS模式对东亚地区的中低层高度场预报可靠时效维持6d以上,高层预报可靠时效可达10 d;长波、超长波的可预报效果显著,其中高度场长波5~8波的预报效果好于3~6波,风场则相反;GFS对我国南方两次持续性降水过程的可预报天数维持在8d左右,并可提前2天预报出强降水带位置;模式对持续性降水过程预报相对站点观测降水量整体偏强。
董颜刘寿东王东海赵艳风
关键词:GFS滤波评分
Cloud Microphysical Budget Associated with Torrential Rainfall During the Landfall of Severe Tropical Storm Bilis (2006)
2013年
Effects of vertical wind shear, radiation, and ice clouds on cloud microphysical budget associated with torrential rainfall during landfall of severe tropical storm Bilis (2006) are investigated by using a series of analysis of two-day grid-scale sensitivity experiment data. When upper-tropospheric upward motions and lower-tropospheric downward motions occur on 15 July 2006, the removal of vertical wind shear and ice clouds increases rainfall contributions from the rainfall type (CM) associated with positive net condensation and hydrometeor loss/convergence, whereas the exclusion of cloud radiative effects and cloud-radiation in- teraction reduces rainfall contribution from CM. The elimination of vertical wind shear and cloud-radiation interaction increases rainfall contribution from the rainfall type (Cm) associated with positive net conden- sation and hydrometeor gain/divergence, but the removal of cloud radiative effects and ice clouds decreases rainfall contribution from Cm. The enhancements in rainfall contribution from the rainfall type (cM) as- sociated with negative net condensation and hydrometeor loss/convergence are caused by the exclusion of cloud radiative effects, cloud-radiation interaction and ice clouds, whereas the reduction in rainfall contri- bution from cM results from the removal of vertical wind shear. When upward motions appear throughout the troposphere on 16 July, the exclusion of all these effects increases rainfall contribution from CM, but generally decreases rainfall contributions from Cm and cM.
王东海刘英朱平尹金方李小凡陶卫国
The Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) over East Asia in Warm Seasons被引量:3
2012年
Mesoscale convective system (MCS) cloud clusters,defined using an objective recognition analysis based on hourly geostationary infrared satellite data over East Asia during the warm seasons of 1996-2008 (except 2004),were investigated in this study.The geographical pattern of MCS distribution over East Asia shows several high-frequency centers at low latitudes,including the Indo-China peninsula,the Bay of Bengal,the Andaman Sea,the Brahmaputra river delta,the south China coastal region,and the Philippine Islands.There are several middle-frequency centers in the middle latitudes,e.g.,the central-east of the Tibet Plateau,the Plateau of west Sichuan,Mount Wuyi,and the Sayan Mountains in Russia;whereas in Lake Baikal,the Tarim Basin,the Taklimakan Desert,the Sea of Japan,and the Sea of Okhotsk,rare MCS distributions are observed.MCSs are most intensely active in summer,with the highest monthly frequency in July,which is partly associated with the breaking out and prevailing of the summer monsoon in East Asia.An obvious diurnal cycle feature is also found in MCS activities,which shows that MCSs are triggered in the afternoon,mature in the evening,and dissipate at night.MCS patterns over East Asia can be characterized as small,short-lived,or elongated,which move slowly and usually lead to heavy rains or floods.
Li JunWang BinWang Dong-Hai
关键词:中尺度对流系统MCSS暖季塔克拉玛干沙漠低纬度地区
2008年华南前汛期致洪暴雨特征及其对比分析被引量:53
2011年
着重对2008年华南前汛期持续性致洪暴雨的降水特征及成因进行了天气尺度的研究,并且对比分析了其与20世纪90年代以来华南前汛期洪灾较为严重的几年(1994、1998和2005年)的降水和环流场特征异同,主要得到以下结果:(1)根据影响系统和雨区分布的不同,将2008年华南前汛期降水过程分为4个阶段。第1阶段(5月26—30日)降水中心分布零星,降水局地性明显。第2阶段(6月7—11日)雨区以带状分布为主,带状雨区上还分布了多个强降水中心。第3阶段(6月12-14日)以片状分布为主,而第4阶段(6月15—19日)雨区既有带状分布,也有片状分布。(2)4个阶段中、低空平均环流场分析表明,环流形势的明显差异决定了雨区分布特点的差异。(3)南海季风涌的频繁活动有力地将水汽一次次地向中国南方地区输送,为暴雨提供了充沛的水汽条件。(4)2008年华南前汛期,500hPa上,中国西南部、华北、华南,华东以及低纬度的孟加拉湾地区均是负的位势高度场异常。华北、华东地区负的异常、青藏高原东部负的异常均有利于冷空气活动,而低纬孟加拉湾地区负的异常又有利于暖湿气流的输送,冷暖气流的活动均非常有利于中国南方地区持续性强降水的发生。(5)对比2008、2005、1998、1994年和气候态的5月15日6月30日总降水分布发现,2008年总降水中心主要位于两广地区及浙赣皖3省交界地区。而浙赣皖3省交界区域的强降水中心位置明显较气候态偏北,被称为"非典型梅雨",而这也是2008年明显不同于另外3年的一个降水分布特点,此外,分析发现,2008年华南前汛期降水强度明显强于另3年。(6)对比4年的500hPa环流及异常场表明,2008年的环流形势相对于另3年要更有利于冷暖空气在中国南方地区交汇,因此,有利于2008年的降水强度大于另外3年。(7)对比4年的850hPa风场异常场分布表明,2008年低层异常风场的偏南风的向�
王东海夏茹娣刘英
关键词:华南前汛期致洪暴雨
正确认识和对待天气气候预报的不确定性被引量:26
2011年
美国国家科学发展的指导机构国家研究顾问委员会(NRC)不久前发表了一份关于天气、气候和水文预报的不确定性的调研报告。报告强调了预报不确定性信息在终端用户应用气象预报作决策中的重要性,同时指出一个预报如果没有定量地估计它的不确定性,那么该预报是不完全的。该报告中文版的出版工作正在进行中,现藉此机会向读者综合地介绍一下预报不确定性的问题。文中首先讨论了预报不确定性的缘由以及应该如何来科学地对待它。然后介绍了要应对这一问题所要进行的一些具体措施和策略。最后,简要地介绍了美国气象界为此所做的一些努力和计划以供参考。通过上述讨论和介绍,希望引起更多的人对预报不确定性问题的重视并科学应对以更好地服务社会。
王东海杜钧柳崇健
Observational Characteristics of Cloud Vertical Profiles over the Continent of East Asia from the CloudSat Data被引量:7
2013年
The CloudSat satellite data from June 2006 to April 2011 are used to investigate the characteristics of cloud vertical profiles over East Asia (20°-50°N, 80°- 120°E), with particular emphasis on the profiles of precipitative clouds in comparison with those of nonprecipitative clouds, as well as the seasonal variations of these profiles. There are some obvious differences between the precipitative and nonprecipitative cloud profiles. Generally, precipitative clouds mainly locate below 8 km with radar refiectivity in the range of-20 to 15 dBZ and maximum values appearing within 2-4-km height, and the clouds usually reach the ground; while nonprecipitative clouds locate in the layers of 4 12 km with radar refiectivity between -28 and 0 dBZ and maximum values within 8-10-km height. There are also some differences among the liquid precipitative, solid precipitative, and possible drizzle precipitative cloud profiles. In precipitative clouds, radar reflectivity increases rapidly from 11 to 7 km in vertical, implying that condensation and collision-coalescence processes play a crucial role in the formation of large-size drops. The frequency distribution of temperature at -15℃ is consistent with the highest frequency of radar reflectivity in solid precipitative clouds, which suggests that the temperatures near -15℃ are conductive to deposition and accretion processes. The vertical profiles of liquid precipitative clouds show almost the same distributions in spring, summer, and autumn but with differences in winter at mainly lower levels. In contrast, the vertical profiles of solid precipitative clouds change from spring to winter with an alternate double and single high-frequency core, which is consistent with variations of the frequency distribution of temperature at 15℃. The vertical profiles of nonprecipitative clouds show a little change with season. The observations also show that the precipitation events over East Asia are mostly related to deep convective clouds and nimbostratus clouds. These results
尹金方王东海翟国庆王志恩
关键词:CLOUDSAT
Validation of IASI-Retrieved Atmospheric Water Vapor Data over the Tibetan Plateau Region
2013年
The Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) is a new-generation ultraspectral atmospheric sounding instrument mounted on the MetOp-A, the first operational polar-orbiting satellite developed by the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT). It is an ultrahigh spectral-resolution atmospheric detector which can detect atmospheric chemical composition, temperature, and humidity profiles with high accuracy and resolution. In the present study, through comparative analyses of the similarities and differences between the IASI and the radiosonde observation (RAOB) water vapor data, and between the IASI and the Aqua-AIRS water vapor retrievals, a detailed and systematic assessment of the credibility of the IASI water vapor retrievals over the plateau region was made. A comparison of the IASI retrievals with the AIRS retrievals and the RAOB measurements over the Tibetan Plateau revealed that the IASI retrieval data are reliable and can be used for conducting further studies.
CHEN TingWANG Dong-HaiLI Guo-PingZHANG Yu-Wei
关键词:大气水汽数据验证大气探测气象卫星极轨卫星
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