Consensus and disagreements between China and the U.S.are the key factors influencing the direction that global climate negotiation is heading for.By taking into account the uncertainties of temperature increment and its impact on GDP growth,together with the positive,negative and spillover effects of climate change investment on utility,a strategic simulation model including China and the U.S.is developed.Based on utility and game theory,a sensitivity analysis is conducted.The results show that the first-mover disadvantage exists in the game,and the scale of each country’s climate change investment under non-cooperative scenario is too small to ensure the 2?C target.To guarantee the stability and win-win basis for global cooperation,the simulation results also indicate that it makes sense to assist and compensate technology transfer and funding to China.
Research on carbon cycling has attracted attention from both scientists and policy-makers.Based on material flow analysis,this study systematically budgets the carbon inputs,outputs and balance from 1980 to 2013 for China's agro-ecosystem and its sub-systems,including agricultural land use,livestock breeding and rural life. The results show that from1980 to 2013,both the carbon input and output were growing gradually,with the carbon input doubling from 1.6 Pg C/year in 1980 to 3.4 Pg C/year in 2013,while carbon output grew from 2.2 Pg C/year in 1980 to 3.8 Pg C/year in 2013. From 1980 to 2013,the crop production system in China has remained a carbon source,and the agricultural land uses were also almost all carbon sources instead of carbon sinks. As soil carbon stock plays a very important role in deciding the function of China's agro-ecosystem as a carbon sink or source,practices that can promote carbon storage and sequestration will be an essential component of low carbon agriculture development in China.
To meet China's CO2 intensity target of 40%-45% reduction by 2020 based on the 2005 level,a regional allocation method based on cluster analysis is developed.Thirty Chinese provinces are classified into six groups based on economy,emissions,and reduction potential indicators.Under the equity principle,the two most developed groups are assigned the highest reduction targets(55% and 65%,respectively).However,their reduction potential is limited.Under the efficiency principle,the two groups with the highest reduction potential take the highest targets(48% and 61%,respectively),but their economy is relatively backward.When equity and efficiency are equally weighted,the 5th group with a prominent reduction potential takes the highest target(54%),and the 2nd and the 3rd groups with large industry scales take the second highest target(49%).However,under all the three allocation schemes,the targets are not greater than 40% for the 4th and the 6th groups,which have a relatively low economic ability,emissions,and reduction potential.Due to inconsistency between economic and reduction potential,corresponding market mechanisms and policy instruments should be established to ensure equity and efficiency of regional target allocation.
