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国家重点基础研究发展计划(2012CB956003)

作品数:6 被引量:41H指数:3
相关作者:陈葆德王晓峰李佳徐同杨玉华更多>>
相关机构:上海市气象局南京信息工程大学中国气象局更多>>
发文基金:国家重点基础研究发展计划国家自然科学基金国家科技支撑计划更多>>
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SMS-WARMS V2.0模式预报效果检验被引量:23
2016年
对新一代上海区域中尺度模式(SMS—WARMS V2.0)系统预报结果进行了统计检验,检验量包括降水、2 m温度场、10 m风速、500 hPa位势高度场和850 hPa温度场、风场和相对湿度。结果表明:新一代模式的预报性能得到明显改善,模式各量级降水的TS和ETS评分都有提高,说明模式对降水事件发生的捕捉能力进一步增强了。分析2 m温度场的均方根误差及预报准确率发现新版业务模式的2 n、温度场预报优于原业务模式。此外新业务模式的10 m风速预报的均方根误差的逐月和多月平均值都低于原业务模式。高空形势场检验结果显示,新业务模式埘500 hPa位势高度场和850 hPa温度场的预报都优于原业务模式,850 hPa风场预报相关系数高于原业务模式,850 hPa相对湿度提高不明显。个例分析表明,新版业务模式强降水预报产品相对于原业务模式产品埘大气预报更具参考价值。
徐同李佳杨玉华王晓峰陈葆德
Modulation of land-sea thermal contrast on the energy source and sink of tropical cyclone activity and its annual cycle被引量:1
2012年
In general,the tropical cyclone(TC) activity is considered to be influenced by the heat content of underlying ocean,vertical shear of horizontal wind,vorticity in the low troposphere,moisture in the troposphere,and favorable condition for deep convection development.However,these factors by nature merely present the internal factors of either atmosphere or ocean which influence the TC activity.In fact,the energy budget of the Earth system and its variation,modulated by the land-sea thermal contrast,are the intrinsic reasons responsible for the variation of TC activity.Here we investigate the modulation of diabatic heating distribution associated with the land-sea thermal contrast on the distribution of TC activity energy source and sink as well as the seasonality.An accumulated energy increment index(AEI) is defined using the TC best track data,and the energy sources and sinks of TC activity are then diagnosed effectively and practically according to the distribution of AEI.Results show that the thermal contrast of land and ocean is the primary reason for asymmetric distribution of TC activity about the Equator as well as the zonally asymmetric distribution of TC activity.The energy sources of TC activity are dominated by condensation heating of deep convection or double-dominant heating,which includes the condensation heating and cooling of longwave radiation(LO),while the sink areas are dominated by LO.The large scale diabatic heating associated with land-sea thermal contrast results in more favorable conditions for TC activity over the west part of oceans than those over the east parts.Moreover,the intensity of interaction of different diabatic heating over the west and east parts of ocean is also affected by the zonal scale of the oceans,which induces the difference of TC activity over the western North Pacific(WNP) and North Atlantic(ATL).The favorable westerlies and anticyclonic vertical shear associated with the tropical zonally asymmetric diabatic heating also contribute to the most intense TC activity ov
YING MingWU GuoXiongLIU YiMinSUN ShuQing
关键词:海陆热力差异热带气旋活动非绝热加热
ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC IN 2012
2013年
Tropical cyclone(TC) activity over the western North Pacific(WNP) in 2012 is summarized and the associated large-scale environmental conditions are discussed. In total 25 named storms formed in the WNP basin in 2012, among them were 3 tropical storms(TSs), 7 severe TSs, 4 typhoons, 6 severe typhoons, and 5 super typhoons. TC activity was close to a 30-year average but above the average active level of recent years since 2005. Total number of TCs formed in the South China Sea(SCS) in 2012 was below normal, with only 40% of the climatological mean. Overall, TC genesis over the WNP was characterized by four active periods. During each period TCs took distinct prevailing tracks. The periodic characteristics in TC genesis were attributed to the activity of the intraseasonal oscillation(ISO), while those in TC tracks were related to the large-scale dynamical and thermodynamic conditions induced by the enhanced WNP monsoon activity and the weak El Ni?o conditions.
RUIFEN ZHANMING YINGPEIYAN CHEN
关键词:TROPICALCYCLONEWESTERNNORTH
ENSO在青藏高原积雪与西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数关系中的作用被引量:8
2016年
已有研究表明,青藏高原冬季积雪与随后台风季节西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数之间具有典型的负相关.本文基于长时间观测资料对二者关系进行再探讨,发现两者的年际关系在20世纪90年代初发生了跃变,即青藏高原冬季积雪与随后台风季节西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数之间显著的负相关仅存在于20世纪90年代初之后(1993-2012年),而20世纪90年代初之前(1976-1992年)二者的联系较弱.进一步本文对引起这种跃变的可能原因进行了分析,发现中部型ENSO在加强青藏高原积雪与西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数关系中起到了至关重要的作用.1993-2012年间,青藏高原积雪与中部型ENSO存在显著的负相关.在青藏高原积雪偏多年(少),中部型ENSO多为冷位相(暖位相),这种分布一方面加强了青藏高原积雪与纬向海陆热力差异继而与西北太平洋夏季风的联系,另一方面加强了青藏高原积雪对热带气旋生成相关的动力环境场的调控,因此在这一时段青藏高原积雪与热带气旋生成频数之间的相关得到了显著增强.然而,在前一时段青藏高原积雪与ENSO的联系较弱,青藏高原积雪对西北太平洋夏季风和台风生成区域动力场调控较弱,因而其与热带气旋生成频数之间的关系减弱.此外,通过能量诊断进一步表明,在1993-2012年中部型ENSO的作用主要是通过加强西北太平洋纬向风的正压能量转化来实现的.结果将为提高热带气旋短期气候预测水平提供一定的理论基础.
占瑞芬丁一汇吴立广雷小途
关键词:热带气旋青藏高原积雪ENSO
区域气候模式在不同分辨率下对西北太平洋热带气旋生成气候特征的比较研究被引量:3
2013年
利用RegCM3区域气候模式,试验研究了15、30、45和60 km 4个分辨率下西北太平洋热带气旋的生成特征。结果表明,RegCM3模式对西北太平洋热带气旋生成的模拟能力受分辨率的影响。分辨率的简单提高,并不一定会使模式的模拟能力有所改善。模式在30 km分辨率下对西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数及频数变化的模拟能力最强,在60 km分辨率下对西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数空间分布的模拟能力最强,在15 km分辨率下对西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数、频数空间分布及频数变化的模拟能力最弱。对比分析不同分辨率下热带气旋的生成过程表明,热带气旋生成前期,β中尺度涡旋没有发生合并,对流层中低层水汽含量不足是导致模式在15 km分辨率下模拟热带气旋生成频数较差的主要原因。
古月陈葆德董广涛
关键词:REGCM3分辨率
Role of ENSO in the interannual relationship between Tibetan Plateau winter snow cover and Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone genesis frequency被引量:6
2016年
Previous studies have revealed a significantly negative correlation between prior winter snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau(TPSC) and tropical cyclone genesis frequency(TCF) over the western North Pacific(WNP) in the following typhoon season. This study revisited this relationship based on long-term observational data. The results showed that the interannual correlation between TCF over the WNP and TPSC experienced a shift in the early 1990 s. This correlation is significant during only 1993–2012 and is considerably weak during 1976–1992. The possible reasons causing the shift were examined further, and the results demonstrated that the central Pacific(CP) El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) has played a vital role in intensifying the interannual relationship between TCF over the WNP and TPSC since the early 1990 s. During 1993–2012, TPSC was negatively related to CP ENSO. When TPSC was higher than(lower than) normal, CP ENSO was often in its cold(warm) phase. Such a combination remarkably enhances the relationship of TPSC with the zonal land-sea thermal difference and thus with the summer monsoon over the WNP. Additionally, it enhances the modulation of TPSC on the dynamical environments controlling TCF. As a result, the linkage between TPSC and TCF was significantly strengthened in this period. In sharp contrast, due to the weak relationship between TPSC and ENSO followed by the weak modulation of TPSC on the summer monsoon over the WNP and the dynamical environment during 1976–1992, the linkage between TPSC and TCF was weak during this time period. The results from additional dynamical diagnostic analyses further showed that during 1993–2012 CP ENSO modulated the barotropic energy conversion of zonal winds over the WNP, contributing to the intensified relationship between TPSC and TCF. These results will improve seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the WNP.
ZHAN RuiFenDING YiHuiWU LiGuangLEI XiaoTu
关键词:热带气旋活动ENSO冬季积雪海陆热力差异
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