为有效调整中国电源结构,'十二五'期间,中国推出可再生能源配额制(renewable portfolio standard,RPS)。建立了可交易的绿色证书(tradable green certificates,TGC)市场和电力市场的局部均衡模型,分析了2个市场的交互作用机理,并利用系统动力学的方法对RPS在2012—2020年的实施情况进行模拟仿真和情景分析。研究结果表明:RPS通过市场机制和政府管制的共同作用,能够有效促进我国电源结构的调整。
China has set carbon emission goals for 2030 and 2060.Renewable energy sources,primarily wind and photovoltaic power,are being considered as the future of power generation.The major limitation to the development of new energies is the limited flexibility of regulations on power system resources,resulting in insufficient consumption capacity.Thus,the flexible resource costs for peak shaving as well as the reasonable coordinated development and operation optimization of regional renewable energy need to be considered.In this study,a renewable energy development layout configuration analysis method was established by considering the composite cost of a power system,comprehensively analyzing the potential of various flexibility regulation resources for the power system and its composite peak shaving cost,and combining renewable energy output characteristics,load forecasting,grid development,and other factors.For the optimization of various flexible resource utilization methods,a peak shaving cost estimation method from the perspective of the entire power system was established by combining the on-grid electricity prices and operating costs of different power sources.A collaborative optimization model of power system operation that aims at the lowest peak shaving cost and satisfies the constraints of operation,safety,and environmental protection was proposed.Finally,a certain area of Gansu Province was used as an example to perform detailed analysis and calculation,which demonstrated that the model has an optimal effect.This model can provide an analysis method for regional renewable energy development layout configurations and system optimization operations.
