Conditional （CNOP） obtained by nonlinear optimal perturbation the ensemble-based calculation method is employed to find possible sensitive areas for improving 48-h or more than 48-h tropical cyclone （TC） track predictions in several cases affecting China in 2007. These sensitive areas are examined by observing system simulation experiments （OSSEs）. Results show that these sensitive areas improve TC track predictions for 48 h or more to different extents. Further analysis is performed to determine the distribution characteristics of sensitive areas in these cases. Results show that areas south of Luzon and over surrounding oceans are significant for 48-h or more than 48-h TC track predictions, especially 60-h to 72-h track predictions. Areas over oceans north or east to Taiwan Island seem to be secondary sensitive for 48-h or more than 48-h TC track predictions.
利用高分辨率大气模式WRF(Weather Research Forecast)耦合了简单的海洋混合层模式,设计了不同海洋初始混合层厚度条件下的数值试验,研究了不同混合层厚度对热带气旋(TC)结构和强度的影响。结果表明,当TC经过海洋混合层厚度较浅海域时,TC对应的海洋底层的冷水更易上翻,最冷中心区出现在TC大风中心右后方160～240km处,海表面温度最大降温值可达-7℃,使其右后方的总表面热量通量交换显著减少,导致TC强度显著变弱;海洋冷却作用还会增强TC结构的非对称性,这与海洋冷却作用的非对称造成TC在边界层附近的涡度和散度平流分布不均密切相关。
Analyzed in this paper are the 20-yr(1991-2010)tropical cyclone(TC)intensity from three forecast centers in the Western North Pacific,i.e.China Meteorological Administration(CMA),Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA),and Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC)of the United States.Results show that there is more or less discrepancy in the intensity change of a TC among different datasets.The maximum discrepancy reaches 22 hPa/6h(42 hPa/6h,33 hPa/6h)between CMA and JMA(CMA and JTWC,JMA and JTWC).Special attention is paid to the records for abrupt intensity change,which is currently a difficult issue for forecasters globally.It is found that an abrupt intensity change process recorded by one dataset can have,in some extreme cases,intensity change in another dataset varying from 0 to≥10 hPa/6h with the same sign or the opposite sign.In a total of 2511 cases experiencing rapid intensity change,only 14%have consensus among all the three datasets and 25%have agreement between two of the three datasets.In spite of such a significant uncertainty,the three datasets agree on the general statistical characteristics of abrupt intensity change,including regional and seasonal distribution,the relationship with initial intensity and TC moving speed,and persistence features.Notable disagreement is on very strong systems(SuperTY)and TCs moving very fast.
