Based on analyzing risk factors of diversion project,synthetic risk rate and engineering insurance period,the frequency and distribution law of loss are researched on the grounds that foundation pit is submerged after diversion project ceases to be effective.And then,the standpoint that these total loss is subject to non-homogeneous compound Poisson processes is put forward.Furthermore,the collective risk model of the total loss about engineering insurance is established on the basis of construction diversion project risk.Ultimately,insurance ratemaking method for construction engineering risk and its mathematical expression are presented,which provides theoretical method for the insurance ratemaking of hydropower engineering to some extent.
There is a discharge control feature of construction diversion system with the upstream operational reservoir. The risk evaluation model of construction diversion is established by taking into consideration the risk factors of construction diversion system with discharge control feature as well as their composition. And the risk factors include the upstream operational reservoir discharge control, the interval flood and branch flood and the diversion system itself. And then based on analyzing of the conversion relation between risk index and investment index of diversion scheme, the risk control and conversion principals of diversion system are put forward, and the feasible diversion scheme model is built. At last, the risk and economic evaluation and scheme economic feasibility analysis method of diversion scheme are shown by an example of construction diversion scheme optimization with the discharge control condition of upstream hydropower station. The study is valuable for establishment and optimization of construction diversion scheme with upstream reservoir discharge control.
