Based on a successful simulation of Typhoon Haikui(2012) using WRF(Weather Research & Forecasting)model with the WSM6 microphysics scheme, a high-resolution model output is presented and analyzed in this study. To understand the cause of the average gridded rainfall stability and increases after Haikui's landfall, this research examines the fields of the physical terms as well as the vapor and condensate distributions and budgets, including their respective changes during the landing process. The environmental vapor supply following the typhoon landfall has no significant difference from that before the landfall. Although Haikui's secondary circulation weakens, this circulation is not conducive to typhoon rainfall stability or increases, although the amounts of the six kinds of water substances(vapor,cloud water, cloud ice, snow, rain, and graupel) increase in the outer region of the typhoon. This reallocation of water substances is essential to the maintenance of rainfall. The six kinds of water substances are classified as vapor, clouds(cloud water and ice) and precipitation(snow, rain, and graupel) to diagnose their budgets. This sorting reveals that the changes in the budgets of different kinds of water substances, caused by the reduced mixing ratios of snow and ice, the water consumption of clouds, and the transformation of graupel, induce increased concentrations of precipitation fallout,which occur closer to the ground after typhoon landfall. In addition, this pattern is an efficient way for Haikui's rainfall to remain stable after its landfall. Thus, the allocation and budget analyses of water substances are meaningful when forecasting the typhoon rainfall stability and increases after landfall.
利用地面观测资料、NCEP再分析资料、FNL资料等,对2012年7月21~22日北京地区发生的一次特大暴雨过程中的大尺度环流背景场和水汽条件进行了分析。结果表明,此次降水过程可分为2个阶段,第1阶段为21日10：00~20：00,呈现对流性降水的特点,第2阶段为21日20：00~22日04：00,以锋面降水为主;此次特大暴雨过程的影响天气系统主要有500 h Pa低槽、低空低涡、地面倒槽、冷锋;7月21日北京全天整个对流层水汽含量充沛;水汽来源主要有2支：一支来自副高外围海上暖湿东南气流和南风气流的输送,一支来自西南低空急流水汽输送,其中后一支水汽输送在此次暴雨过程中起主要作用;北京地区低空有非常强烈的水汽辐合中心。
Newtonian jerky dynamics is applied to inertial instability analysis to study the nonlinear features of atmospheric motion under the action of variable forces. Theoretical analysis of the Newtonian jerky function is used to clarify the criteria for inertial instability, including the influences of the meridional distributions of absolute vorticity (ζg ) and planetary vorticity (the β effect). The results indicate that the meridional structure of absolute vorticity plays a fundamental role in the dynamic features of inertial motion. Including only the β effect (with the assumption of constant ζg ) does not change the instability criteria or the dynamic features of the flow, but combining the β effect with meridional variations of ζg introduces nonlinearities that significantly influence the instability criteria. Numerical analysis is used to derive time series of position, velocity, and acceleration under different sets of parameters, as well as their trajectories in phase space. The time evolution of kinematic variables indicates that a regular wave-like change in acceleration corresponds to steady wave-like variations in position and velocity, while a rapid growth in acceleration (caused by a rapid intensification in the force acting on the parcel) corresponds to track shifts and abrupt changes in direction. Stable limiting cases under the f-and β-plane approximations yield periodic wave-like solutions, while unstable limiting cases yield exponential growth in all variables. Perturbing the value of absolute vorticity at the initial position (ζ0 ) results in significant changes in the stability and dynamic features of the motion. Enhancement of the nonlinear term may cause chaotic behavior to emerge, suggesting a limit to the predictability of inertial motion.
