The time series of the monthly smoothed sun-spot numbers in 1749-2000 is analyzed with the wavelet. The result shows that besides the known time-variation of the period about 11 years, other main periods of the sunspot numbers, such as the periods of about 100 years and so on, vary with time. We suggest that the time-variation of the main periods is the manifestation of the complex variation of sunspot numbers. It is significant to make a thorough study of the character and mechanism of the time-variation of the periods for proving prediction of sunspot numbers, especially for understanding the variation process of sunspot numbers.
HAN Yanben & HAN YonggangNational Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
The long-term fluctuation of the Schwabe period (LSP) of sunspots number (SSN) has been found to have high correlation with the variation of the length-of-day (LOD) in low frequency by using the data of smoothed monthly mean SSN during 1818-1999 and the method of wavelet transform. Analyses indicate that the maximum correlation coefficient between the series of LSP and LOD during 1892-1997 is about 0.9, with a time lag of about 5 years for the LOD related to the LSP. Though the maximum correlation coefficients between the LSP and the other two LOD series (1818-1997) reduce to about 0.4, they remain over the thresholds of 95% confidence level. This suggests new evidence for possible impact of solar activity on the long-term fluctuation of the earth rotation.
The relationship between the inter-annual variations of the earth rotation, atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), sunspot number and El Ni(?)o is analyzed. The result shows that the inter-annual variation of the earth rotation responds to the variation of AAM and the preg-nancy of El Ni(?)o timely. Generally, the inter-annual compo-nent of the earth rotation will reach zero in a changing proc-ess that increases from the negative to the positive extreme before El Ni(?)o occurs about half year or more. And the solar activity may have certain influence on the appearance of El Ni(?)o. We consider that El Ni(?)o will possibly appear around the end of 2001.
The electron pulsation event is defined in the paper. Firstly, a slow Halo CME on March 16, 2001 that led to low-energetic solar proton event, electron pulsation event and major geomag- netic storm was analyzed. And then, dozens of events are collected. The interrelations among the solar flare, CME, solar proton event, electron pulsation event and geomagnetic storm are studied. The results show that: (i) Solar proton events can be regarded as the indication that CMEs get to the earth and the electron pulsation events can be regarded as the indication of solar proton flux. (ii) Not only can fast CMEs strongly influence the earth, but also slow CMEs can influence the earth, and its influences are more frequent and cannot be neglected. (iii) Most of high-energetic solar proton events with E≥10 MeV can lead to geomagnetic storms, but most of the medium and weak geomagnetic storms result from low-energetic solar proton events that are caused by CMEs. (iv) Both the electron pulsation events and geomagnetic storms are the link effects of high-and low-energetic solar proton events, but the occurrence of electron pulsation event are generally prior to the geomagnetic storm. So in the circumstance where the near real-time observing data of the low-energetic solar proton event cannot be obtained, we can regard electron pulsation event as the indication of the low-energetic solar proton flux reaching the earth, which can be used as one of the important references of short-term prediction and alert of the geomagnetic storm.
The variation of the near 5-month period of sunspot numbers is discussed on the basis of the wavelet transform of the daily sunspot number series in the 14th-22nd solar cycles. The result shows that the period exists in every cycle and its energy density (amplitude) is comparatively large in the peak section of the cycle. In the distinct cycle, the length and intensity of the period is different, which means that the period varies with time. The near 25-day period is also analyzed and it is found to be time-variable and even not very stable in the peak section of the cycle. The variations of the two periods show that the near 5-month period should not be simply regarded as the multiples of the near 25-day period.
HAN Yanben1 & HAN Yonggang1,21. National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
