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国家自然科学基金(50679043)

作品数:2 被引量:2H指数:1
相关作者:范子武李运辉姜树海更多>>
相关机构:南京水利科学研究院更多>>
发文基金:国家自然科学基金国家科技支撑计划更多>>
相关领域:水利工程理学更多>>

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大坝防洪时变风险率研究
在时变效应基础上,分析了影响大坝防洪安全各种随机量的时变特性,进行了时变随机量定量评估方法的研究。将 Bayes 统计推断方法引入防洪时变随机量的评估中,有利于克服经典统计学方法的局限性,具有一定的实用性和可操作性。以大...
范子武姜树海
关键词:大坝老化
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Dynamic probability evaluation of safety levels of earth-rockfill dams using Bayesian approach
2009年
In order to accurately predict and control the aging process of dams, new information should be collected continuously to renew the quantitative evaluation of dam safety levels. Owing to the complex structural characteristics of dams, it is quite difficult to predict the time-varying factors affecting their safety levels. It is not feasible to employ dynamic reliability indices to evaluate the actual safety levels of dams. Based on the relevant regulations for dam safety classification in China, a dynamic probability description of dam safety levels was developed. Using the Bayesian approach and effective information mining, as well as real-time information, this study achieved more rational evaluation and prediction of dam safety levels. With the Bayesian expression of discrete stochastic variables, the a priori probabilities of the dam safety levels determined by experts were combined wfth the likelihood probability of the real-time check information, and the probability information for the evaluation of dam safety levels was renewed. The probability index was then applied to dam rehabilitation decision-making. This method helps reduce the difficulty and uncertainty of the evaluation of dam safety levels and complies with the current safe decision-making regulations for dams in China. It also enhances the application of current risk analysis methods for dam safety levels.
Zi-wu FAN Shu-hai JIANG Ming ZHANG
影响大坝防洪安全随机因子的时变特性及其量化方法被引量:2
2008年
大坝防洪安全受到诸多随机因素的影响。随着时间的推移,这些影响大坝防洪安全的随机因素又表现出显著的时变特性。分析了大坝的防洪随机时变特性,论证了缓变性和陡变性作用对大坝防洪安全的影响是极为显著的,重点分析了大坝长期运行过程中各种随机因子的时变特性及其对防洪安全的影响。针对坝顶沉陷、泥沙淤积、泄洪闸门事故等典型因子,分别提出了衰减函数法、综合分析法和贝叶斯推断法三种定量化分析方法。
范子武姜树海李运辉
关键词:贝叶斯推断
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