The sea surface height anomaly(SSHA) signals leading the fall Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) are investigated. The results suggest that, prior to the IOD by one year, a positive SSHA emerges over the western-central tropical Pacific(WCTP), which peaks during winter(January-February-March, JFM), persists into late spring and early summer(April-May-June, AMJ), and becomes weakened later on. An SSHA index, referred as to SSHA_WCTP, is defined as the averaged SSHA over the WCTP during JFM. The index is not only significantly positively correlated with the following-fall(September-October-November, SON) IOD index, but also is higher than the autocorrelation of the IOD index crossing the two different seasons. The connection of SSHA_ WCTP with following-summer rainfall in China is then explored. The results suggest that higher(lower) SSHA_ WCTP corresponds to increased(reduced) rainfall over southern coastal China, along with suppressed(increased) rainfall over the middle–lower reaches of the Yangtze River, North China, and the Xinjiang region of northwestern China. Mechanistically, following the preceding-winter higher(lower) SSHA_WCTP, the South Asia High and the Western Pacific Subtropical High are weakened(intensified), which results in the East Asian summer monsoon weakening(intensifying). Finally, the connection between SSHA_WCTP and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is analyzed. Despite a significant correlation, SSHA_WCTP is more closely connected with summer rainfall. This implies that the SSHA_WCTP index in the preceding winter is a more effective predictor of summer rainfall in comparison with ENSO.
After compositing three representative ENSO indices,El Nio events have been divided into an eastern pattern(EP) and a central pattern(CP).By using EOF,correlation and composite analysis,the relationship and possible mechanisms between Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) and two types of El Nio were investigated.IOD events,originating from Indo-Pacific scale air-sea interaction,are composed of two modes,which are associated with EP and CP El Ni o respectively.The IOD mode related to EP El Nio events(named as IOD1) is strongest at the depth of 50 to 150 m along the equatorial Indian Ocean.Besides,it shows a quasi-symmetric distribution,stronger in the south of the Equator.The IOD mode associated with CP El Nio(named as IOD2) has strongest signal in tropical southern Indian Ocean surface.In terms of mechanisms,before EP El Nio peaks,anomalous Walker circulation produces strong anomalous easterlies in equatorial Indian Ocean,resulting in upwelling in the east,decreasing sea temperature there;a couple of anomalous anticyclones(stronger in the south) form off the Equator where warm water accumulates,and thus the IOD1 occurs.When CP El Nio develops,anomalous Walker circulation is weaker and shifts its center to the west,therefore anomalous easterlies in equatorial Indian Ocean is less strong.Besides,the anticyclone south of Sumatra strengthens,and the southerlies east of it bring cold water from higher latitudes and northerlies west of it bring warm water from lower latitudes to the 15° to 25°S zone.Meanwhile,there exists strong divergence in the east and convergence in the west part of tropical southern Indian Ocean,making sea temperature fall and rise separately.Therefore,IOD2 lies farther south.
The relationship between summer rainfall anomalies in northeast China and two types of El Ni?o events is investigated by using observation data and an atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM).It is shown that,for different types of El Ni?o events,there is different rainfall anomaly pattern in the following summer.In the following year of a typical El Ni?o event,there are remarkable positive rainfall anomalies in the central-western region of northeast China,whereas the pattern of more rainfall in the south end and less rainfall in the north end of northeast China easily appears in an El Ni?o Modoki event.The reason for the distinct difference is that,associated with the different sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA)along the equatorial Pacific,the large-scale circulation anomalies along east coast of East Asia shift northward in the following summer after El Ni?o Modoki events.Influenced by the anomalous anticyclone in Philippine Sea,southwesterly anomalies over eastern China strengthen summer monsoon and bring more water vapor to northeast China.Meanwhile,convergence and updraft is strengthened by the anomalous cyclone right in northeast China in typical El Ni?o events.These moisture and atmospheric circulation conditions are favorable for enhanced precipitation.However,because of the northward shift,the anomalous anticyclone in the Philippine Sea in typical El Ni?o cases shifts to the south of Japan in Modoki years,and the anomalous cyclone in northeast China in typical El Ni?o cases shifts to the north of northeast China,leading to the"dipole pattern"of rainfall anomalies.According to the results of numerical experiments,we further confirm that the tropical SSTA in different types of El Ni?o event can give rise to observed rainfall anomaly patterns in northeast China.
