[Objective] The aim was to analyze effect of climate change on occurrence degree of cotton Lugus lucorum in coastal areas of Jiangsu Province, in order to provide authentic references for better prevention. [Method] Statistical analysis was conducted on Information about occurrence degree of cotton Lugus lucorum in Binhai County in Jiangsu Province from 1985 to 2007 under guidance of Integral regression method. [Result] Because of climate change, cotton Lugus lucorum occurrence de- grees differed in different generations and growth stages in Binhai County. Tempera- ture and humidity constituted the main climate factors. In general, climate change hindered occurrence degree from increasing. We could make use of the period when occurrence degree of cotton Lugus lucorum is prone to significant increase and choose some periods, such as early April, late June and middle August, to improve prevention effect. In addition, attention should be paid to comprehensive measures, such as adjustment of industrial structure, which will reduce pesticide and minimize cotton Lugus lucorum damage and adverse impact from prevention measures. [Conclusion] The results provided authentic references for cotton Lugus lucorum preven- tion in Jiangsu coastal areas.
以中尺度非静力WRF模式的格点预报结果作为云模式的初值集合,经云模式的多初值雷暴预报及预报结果的集合分析,建立了雷暴云的集合预报方法。将该方法应用于南京周边地区未来一天雷暴天气的特征预报,并利用南京夏季9个雷暴天气的多普勒雷达资料(SCIT,storm cell identification and tracking)进行预报效果的检验。结果表明,雷暴云的集合预报对研究区域内未来一天雷暴强度、分布预报效果较好,尤其对强雷暴的分布有较强的预警预测能力。此外,雷暴持续时间概率密度分布的集合预报产品,在雷暴影响范围概率预报上的应用,提高了雷达对雷暴的预警监测能力。
